Will UPA dump Karuna and hug Amma?

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The first election after the 2G scam has gone against the Congress and its allies in Tamil Nadu.

The issue of corruption has hurt M Karuanidhi, who heads what was called the first family of Tamil Nadu.

These elections were held against the backdrop of a scam in which the prime accused is former Telecom Minister A Raja, a trusted lieutenant of the DMK chief and outgoing Chief Minister M Karunanidhi.

Karunanidhi's daughter Kanimozhi is also charged in the scam. Political analysts say 'family rule' was something the voters resented, and Jayalalithaa connected to the masses by talking about it. The 2G scam was an issue that apparently bothered only to urban voters.

So how does Jayalalithaa's win impact relations at the centre? The Congress had bargained for 62 seats in the DMK-led alliance, and hasn't done well. Will the Congress seize this opportunity to move away from the DMK?

Kanimozhi's bail plea in the spectrum case comes up tomorrow. If Kanimozhi is arrested, the relationship between the two parties might take a further dip.

The DMK distanced itself from Raja when Kanimozhi was summoned by the CBI special court. So was the DMK unaware of Raja's crimes? How did the Channel's mouthpiece Kalaignar TV get funds from Shahid Balwa's firm DB Realty?

Kanimozhi's argument that she was unaware of the financial decisions taken by the group is hard to believe. Let us not forget that soon after the spectrum scam broke out, the DMK had strongly defended Raja, with Karunanidhi even stating that his once-close confidante had done no wrong and had merely followed a system put in place by his predecessors in the telecom ministry.

On November 14, when Raja was pressured to resign as telecom minister, Karunanidhi hailed him as "one who would always retain the party's confidence".

The DMK is unhappy over the publicity given to the CBI questioning Kanimozhi, Karunanidhi's wife Dayaluammal, and Sharad Kumar, all stakeholders in Kalaignar TV.

Those arrested in the 2G spectrum allocation case include former telecom minister A Raja, his former secretary RK Chandolia and former telecom secretary Siddharth Behuria , and the DMK will be desperately hoping Kanimozhi won't join them tomorrow.

Here is a possibility in the next few months: If the Congress wants to win the next parliamentary elections, it will try to disassociate itself from a party mired in corruption. The Supreme Court has pulled up the biggest names in government, including the Prime Minister, and the Congress would not want to appear as tainted as its allies.

The UPA may strategically align with Jayalalithaa just a year before the 2014 polls. Currently, the DMK could win the game because they have 18 MPs. Jayalalithaa has assured Manmohan Singh that she can bring him the numbers if he wishes to switch. The Congress might think it is easier to deal with a humbled DMK than with an assertive Jaya.

It is not yet clear which way the Congress will go, but the election results have opened up new avenues for the party.